Din nou despre alegeri

Ok, v-ați prins, cu timpul liber pe care îl am zilele astea, lucrez la Harta Politicii. :-)

Dacă tot am simulat zilele trecute sistemul electoral și am lista cu cei care au câștigat, m-a ros curiozitatea să văd câți dintre deputații din mandatul anterior au fost într-adevăr realeși și de ce.

În primul rând, am actualizat lista camerei deputaților de aici cu dacă deputatul a fost sau nu reales plus numărul de voturi care au contat.

Ce am aflat

Din 190 de deputați care au recandidat tot pentru Camera Deputaților, 98 au fost realeși și doar 82 nu mai au un loc de deputat. 98 reprezintă cam o treime din Camera Deputaților.

Prezența medie în ultimii patru ani a celor 98 realeși este de 57%. Prezența medie a celor 82 respinși este de 64%, în contextul în care prezența medie a întregii Camere a fost în jur de 66%.

E destul de deprimant să vezi că oameni care s-au dus pe la servici mai puțin de un sfert din timp au fost realeși să facă asta încă patru ani. :-(

De ce sunt numerele astea importante

Mi se pare că asta răspunde parțial la întrebarea “uite, am votat, și la putere sunt tot ăia și tot își fac de cap”.

Dacă electoratul nu elimină uscăciunile odată la patru ani, cum să ai pretenția de la politicieni să se simtă trași la răspundere și să se schimbe ceva?

Ce înseamnă asta

Într-un sistem care ar fi funcționat corect, ar fi trebuit să rămână la putere cei care au făcut bine, să fie eliminați cei care nu au făcut așa de bine, să funcționeze un sistem de selecție pentru ca parlamentarii să se simtă trași la răspundere, nu?

Poate e de vină doar faptul că uninominalele astea sunt încă ceva nou și cultura votului informat și a democrației participative nu există. Rămâne de văzut dacă peste patru ani se va schimba ceva în numerele astea.

12 Responses to “Din nou despre alegeri”

  1. Nu poti elimina in mod eficient uscaturile atata timp cat nu ai un sistem eficient de evaluare. Ok, prezenta este un criteriu important de evaluare, dar posibil nu cel mai important si in nici un caz unicul. Deci, sugestii?

  2. Vivi says:

    Very good point.

    Probabil că mie mi se pare prezența un criteriu necesar, ceva care vine înaintea multor altora. Adică… ca să fii implicat și să faci ceva bine, ar trebui în primul rând să fii acolo, nu?

    Și deși în unele cazuri poți să o întorci pe-o parte și pe alta și să zici că merge și așa, când vezi cazuri ca Ruxandra Jipa, realeasă deputat la București-D17, traseistă politică fostă PRM și trecută magic la PSD fix în prag de alegeri, prezentă în Camera Deputaților doar 20% din timp, you start wondering. :-)

  3. Nicu Alecu says:

    Vivi, am urmărit toată strădania ta cu harta politicii, step by step.
    La fiecare pas, concluzia mea a fost diametral opusă de a ta şi anume aceea că orice ai schimba la nivel procedural în alegeri, nu acolo este buba sistemului politic românesc şi deci efortul (de schimbare şi/sau votare) va fi în van.
    Altfel spus, am fost convins până-n rărunchi de inutilitatea finală a (de)mersului la vot, iniţial în mod visceral iar mai apoi, în urma statisticilor tale remarcabile, în mod fundamentat matematic.
    Iar acum vii tu cu premiera: „uite, am votat, și la putere sunt tot ăia și tot își fac de cap” … ei bine, eu n-am (mai) votat şi-mi pare al naibii de rău că am avut dreptate! :(

  4. Vivi says:

    Nicu, poate dacă votai (și aici mă refer la un tu destul de generic), lucrurile ar fi stat altfel. Ai văzut în mesajul anterior, votul individual contează destul de mult și poate face diferența.

    Am mai spus asta și în alt comentariu. Când spun că lucrurile ar fi stat altfel nu sugerez că ar fi curs lapte și miere a doua zi, ci doar că într-un viitor generic ar duce la o îndreptare a clasei politice dacă oamenii ar vota informat.

    FYI, faptul că 2/3 din camera deputaților s-a schimbat e un lucru bun, mie mi se pare un turn-over mare.

    O să mai meditez la problema asta.

  5. Vivi says:

    A, și btw, o statistică interesantă (și foarte ironică) pe care am ezitat să o pun în postul de mai sus a fost că în secțiile de votare unde au fost realeși cei 98 de deputați prezența la urne a fost de 39.6% în timp ce pentru ceilalți 82 respinși, prezența medie la urne a fost de 36.8% (cu aproape trei procente mai mică).

    Trebuie să verific mai bine asta, nu înțeleg de ce lucrurile ar sta așa sau dacă asta e relevant în vreun fel.

  6. vecinadeblog says:

    Wow, am dat de ceva util in blogosfera acum cand toata lumea e aburita dupa sarbatori :)
    In legatura cu votul uninominal, ai facut vreo comparatie cu ce s-a intamplat acum 4 ani, sa vezi daca sistemul pe liste schimba mai multi/mai putini parlamentari (banuiesc ca mai putini)?
    Ar fi interesant sa vedem daca e mai dinamic noul sistem, eventual daca n-ai timp caut eu niste date si le publicam. Facem evaluare :)

  7. Adinel says:

    Yes! Harta Politicii e contagioasa :) ! Vecino (Stefania), parerea mea e sa strangi datele oricum :) Cu toti ne dorim cat mai multe perspective asupra sistemului politic romanesc, puse intr-o forma care sa nu te oblige sa “navighezi” pe un site guvernamental o saptamana, doua sau poate chiar luni de zile… Welcome! :D

  8. Alex says:

    Din 190 de deputați care au recandidat tot pentru Camera Deputaților, 98 au fost realeși și doar 82 nu mai au un loc de deputat. 98 reprezintă cam o treime din Camera Deputaților.

    98+82=180
    Ori au fost 180 de deputati care au recandidat, ori 10 dintre ei, diferenta pana la 190, s-au evaporat, fie nu se incadreaza in niciuna din cele 2 categorii, poate au fost semirealesi sau seminerealesi.
    Astept o rectificare in sensul asta.

  9. A.M. says:

    Number games… Deci, totalul de 232 fosti deputati cu o medie de prezenta de 66% se pot imparti in trei categorii:

    (1) Cei care au candidat din nou si au fost realesi: 98 la numar, adica aprox. 30% din total, cu o prezenta medie de 57%.

    (2) Cei care au candidat din nou si NU au fost alesi: 82 la numar, aprox. 25% din total, cu o prezenta medie de 64%.

    si

    (3) Cei care nu au mai candidat: 143 la numar, aprox. 45% din total, care terbuie sa fi avut o prezenta medie undeva pe la 73% (al’fel nu s-ar ajunge per total la 66%).

    Ce concluzii se pot trage d-acilea? Probabil ca multe si marunte; eu o sa-ncerc doar citeva marunte.

    Daca, comparind grupul (1) si (2) tragem concluzia ca mai multa prezenta in Parlament atrage dupa sine mai putine sanse de realegere, as zice ca cei din grupul (3) (care au o prezenta mai mare decit cei din (1) si (2)) au facut o alegere logica: nici macar n-au mai candidat, considerind ca au prea mici sanse de izbinda.

    Si daca asta e adevarat, inseamna ca strategia corecta pentru realegere in 2012 ar fi prezenta cit mai putin posibil in Camera. Hmm…

    In alta ordine de idei, daca cei care au participat mai mult in Parlament (grupul (3)) au decis ca e mai bine sa nu candideze, am putea zice ca cu cit mergi mai mult in Parlament, cu atit iti doresti mai putin sa o faci si dupa patru ani… Hmm, again…

    :-)

    ps/ Nu am facut calculele decit o data si s-ar ptuea sa fi gresit; orisicit, nu cred c-as fi tras alte concluzii :-) )…

  10. [...] post este un duplicat al mesajului de aici. L-am duplicat pe Harta Politicii pentru a avea toate mesajele pe această temă într-un loc [...]

  11. Vivi says:

    @A.M. Într-adevăr, nu știu să adun. :-) Erau 180. :-) Găsești aici niște cifre ceva mai bune http://www.vivi.ro/politica/?p=22

    Altfel, am găsit și explicația pentru prezența redusă: au fost realeși mulți dintre parlamentarii foarte vizibili în presă, președinți sau vicepreședinți de partide. Din păcate, prezența în presă se corelează invers proporțional cu prezența în parlament, foarte mulți dintre aceștia având practic titlul de parlamentar mai mult onorific, cu prezențe la job de sub 10-20%.

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